We have a choice: grow GDP or cripple it

Every capitalist knows that the larger the spending population, the more robust is the economy. We also know what builds a spending population is a growing labor force, which is essential for an economy that chooses to maintain and grow the goods and services sold to consumers and businesses.

The GDP growth equation is simple: The more people working drives more spending capability, increases productivity and production, grows investment, and ultimately increases GDP.

I look to the precedent set by former president Ronald Reagan, who put us on a path of high GDP growth for a nation of our size. His economic policies understood taking advantage of demographics for labor force growth, which were at the time base on baby boom growth. However, at the same time, he saw that, given birth rates, this demographic boom would not sustain itself. He understood that supplementing our labor force through immigration was critical for accelerating and sustaining the growth of our U.S. economy, which proved to set the United States of America apart from virtually all other countries in the world.
Historical data clearly show the relationship between increased immigration, labor force growth, and a growing economy as measured by GDP.

Regardless of the rhetoric of some, the fact is that immigrants, both legal and undocumented, have been powering our labor force growth, productivity, and consumption for decades. Undocumented immigrants alone accounted for about a third of U.S. employment gains last year – or about 1 million jobs.  The fact of the matter is, the phrase that these immigrants are “taking our jobs” has never proven to be true, and now with over eight million unfilled jobs we are approaching a crisis point IF we want to sustain a growing economy.

Donald Trump has proposed a mass deportation policy that would dramatically reduce our labor force growth and reverse the economic growth that has come with it. The deportation of millions of workers would harm critical sectors of our economy, stagnate consumption growth, reduce labor productivity, endanger our economy, and just to be clear, our entire country. His immigration policy would reduce net immigration to the U.S. from about 3.3 million last year to just a few hundred thousand annually, thus exacerbating our already problematic worker shortage and creating an economic hole that we cannot fill.

According to an analysis from Moody’s Analytics, Trump’s MAGAnomics economic plan would trigger a recession by mid-2025, with an economy that would slow to an average 1.3% annual growth.

Clearly Trump policies reflect someone who does not understand the basics of how an economy works. For those who believe him to be a potential business-friendly president, I suggest you look at the historical data from modern day administrations, which show that Trump rates at the bottom of all of them in economic performance.

Immigration is a concern for all Americans for good reason, but not because we have it, rather because we haven’t managed it for years. It is economic folly to suggest we deport workers and cut off the supply of more workers as the best approach to immigration. What we need now is thoughtful and smart immigration policy. It must be grounded in the fact we need more workers. At the same time, we need border security that prevents the entry of criminals and negative elements. We must recruit people with the skills our job market requires, and provide skill training to match those needs.

We are at a critical point of time in our country’s history that will define not only today’s opportunities, but the opportunities available for our children and grandchildren. Everybody benefits from a growing economy. That is what has made America great over time. We also know that a growing economy needs a growing labor force, and as Ronald Reagan understood, that requires immigration.